Quote of the Day
A man always has two reasons for the things he does -- a good one and the real one.
— J.P. Morgan. I have frequently have found this statement to be true.
Introduction
Ronald Reagan (Figure 1) was our oldest president at the time of inauguration – 69 years 349 days old. The 2016 US presidential election is giving us a choice of two candidates that will be relatively old at inauguration: Donald Trump (70 years, 220 days), and Hilary Clinton (69 years, 86 days). Since US presidents often serve 2 terms, it is conceivable they we may have a 77- to 78-year old president in 2024. This fact makes me curious as to what is the likelihood that a 70 year-old's natural life will be long enough for them to serve one or two terms.
We can easily compute this probability using an actuarial life table. In this post, I will compute the probability that a 70-year old male or female will complete one or two 4-year terms.
Background
The basic math behind the life table is well covered in the Wikipedia, and I will refer you there for the details.
Analysis
I have included an actuarial life table in Appendix A. The actual calculations are easily performed using a filtered pivot table version of the life table, which I show in Figure 2.
This data is interesting:
- A 70-year old male has a 10% chance of dying by 74 and a 23% chance of dying by 78.
- A 70-year old female has a 7% chance of dying by 74 and a 17% chance of dying by 78.
Conclusion
There is a ~23% chance that a 70-year old male president would not be able to complete 2 terms, which is about what I would have expected. There is ~17% chance that a 70-year old female president would not be able to complete 2 terms, which is higher than I would have expected.
Appendix A: US Social Security Administration Life Table.
Table 1 is the 2013 life table used by the Social Security Administration (SSA). The analysis in this post consists of filtered pivot table version of this date.
Age | Male Prob of Death | Males Alive | Male Life Exp. | Female Prob of Death | Female Alive | Female Life Exp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.006519 | 100000 | 76.28 | 0.005377 | 100000 | 81.05 |
1 | 0.000462 | 99348 | 75.78 | 0.000379 | 99462 | 80.49 |
2 | 0.000291 | 99302 | 74.82 | 0.000221 | 99425 | 79.52 |
3 | 0.000209 | 99273 | 73.84 | 0.000162 | 99403 | 78.54 |
4 | 0.000176 | 99252 | 72.85 | 0.000133 | 99387 | 77.55 |
5 | 0.000159 | 99235 | 71.87 | 0.000119 | 99373 | 76.56 |
6 | 0.000146 | 99219 | 70.88 | 0.000109 | 99361 | 75.57 |
7 | 0.000133 | 99205 | 69.89 | 0.000101 | 99351 | 74.58 |
8 | 0.000118 | 99192 | 68.9 | 0.000096 | 99341 | 73.58 |
9 | 0.000102 | 99180 | 67.9 | 0.000093 | 99331 | 72.59 |
10 | 0.000091 | 99170 | 66.91 | 0.000094 | 99322 | 71.60 |
11 | 0.000096 | 99161 | 65.92 | 0.0001 | 99312 | 70.60 |
12 | 0.000128 | 99151 | 64.92 | 0.000112 | 99303 | 69.61 |
13 | 0.000195 | 99138 | 63.93 | 0.000134 | 99291 | 68.62 |
14 | 0.000288 | 99119 | 62.94 | 0.000162 | 99278 | 67.63 |
15 | 0.000389 | 99091 | 61.96 | 0.000194 | 99262 | 66.64 |
16 | 0.000492 | 99052 | 60.99 | 0.000226 | 99243 | 65.65 |
17 | 0.000607 | 99003 | 60.02 | 0.000261 | 99220 | 64.67 |
18 | 0.000735 | 98943 | 59.05 | 0.000297 | 99194 | 63.68 |
19 | 0.000869 | 98870 | 58.09 | 0.000334 | 99165 | 62.70 |
20 | 0.001011 | 98785 | 57.14 | 0.000373 | 99132 | 61.72 |
21 | 0.001145 | 98685 | 56.2 | 0.000412 | 99095 | 60.75 |
22 | 0.001246 | 98572 | 55.27 | 0.000446 | 99054 | 59.77 |
23 | 0.001301 | 98449 | 54.33 | 0.000472 | 99010 | 58.80 |
24 | 0.001321 | 98321 | 53.4 | 0.000493 | 98963 | 57.82 |
25 | 0.00133 | 98191 | 52.47 | 0.000513 | 98915 | 56.85 |
26 | 0.001345 | 98060 | 51.54 | 0.000537 | 98864 | 55.88 |
27 | 0.001363 | 97928 | 50.61 | 0.000563 | 98811 | 54.91 |
28 | 0.001391 | 97795 | 49.68 | 0.000593 | 98755 | 53.94 |
29 | 0.001427 | 97659 | 48.75 | 0.000627 | 98697 | 52.97 |
30 | 0.001467 | 97519 | 47.82 | 0.000664 | 98635 | 52.01 |
31 | 0.001505 | 97376 | 46.89 | 0.000705 | 98569 | 51.04 |
32 | 0.001541 | 97230 | 45.96 | 0.000748 | 98500 | 50.08 |
33 | 0.001573 | 97080 | 45.03 | 0.000794 | 98426 | 49.11 |
34 | 0.001606 | 96927 | 44.1 | 0.000845 | 98348 | 48.15 |
35 | 0.001648 | 96772 | 43.17 | 0.000903 | 98265 | 47.19 |
36 | 0.001704 | 96612 | 42.24 | 0.000968 | 98176 | 46.23 |
37 | 0.001774 | 96448 | 41.31 | 0.001038 | 98081 | 45.28 |
38 | 0.001861 | 96277 | 40.38 | 0.001113 | 97979 | 44.33 |
39 | 0.001967 | 96097 | 39.46 | 0.001196 | 97870 | 43.37 |
40 | 0.002092 | 95908 | 38.53 | 0.001287 | 97753 | 42.43 |
41 | 0.00224 | 95708 | 37.61 | 0.001393 | 97627 | 41.48 |
42 | 0.002418 | 95493 | 36.7 | 0.001517 | 97491 | 40.54 |
43 | 0.002629 | 95262 | 35.78 | 0.001662 | 97343 | 39.60 |
44 | 0.002873 | 95012 | 34.88 | 0.001827 | 97182 | 38.66 |
45 | 0.003146 | 94739 | 33.98 | 0.002005 | 97004 | 37.73 |
46 | 0.003447 | 94441 | 33.08 | 0.002198 | 96810 | 36.81 |
47 | 0.003787 | 94115 | 32.19 | 0.002412 | 96597 | 35.89 |
48 | 0.004167 | 93759 | 31.32 | 0.002648 | 96364 | 34.97 |
49 | 0.004586 | 93368 | 30.44 | 0.002904 | 96109 | 34.06 |
50 | 0.005038 | 92940 | 29.58 | 0.003182 | 95829 | 33.16 |
51 | 0.00552 | 92472 | 28.73 | 0.003473 | 95524 | 32.27 |
52 | 0.006036 | 91961 | 27.89 | 0.003767 | 95193 | 31.38 |
53 | 0.006587 | 91406 | 27.05 | 0.004058 | 94834 | 30.49 |
54 | 0.00717 | 90804 | 26.23 | 0.004352 | 94449 | 29.62 |
55 | 0.007801 | 90153 | 25.41 | 0.004681 | 94038 | 28.74 |
56 | 0.008466 | 89450 | 24.61 | 0.00504 | 93598 | 27.88 |
57 | 0.009133 | 88693 | 23.82 | 0.0054 | 93126 | 27.01 |
58 | 0.009792 | 87883 | 23.03 | 0.005756 | 92623 | 26.16 |
59 | 0.010462 | 87022 | 22.25 | 0.006128 | 92090 | 25.31 |
60 | 0.011197 | 86112 | 21.48 | 0.006545 | 91526 | 24.46 |
61 | 0.012009 | 85147 | 20.72 | 0.007034 | 90927 | 23.62 |
62 | 0.012867 | 84125 | 19.97 | 0.007607 | 90287 | 22.78 |
63 | 0.013772 | 83042 | 19.22 | 0.008281 | 89600 | 21.95 |
64 | 0.014749 | 81899 | 18.48 | 0.009057 | 88858 | 21.13 |
65 | 0.015852 | 80691 | 17.75 | 0.009953 | 88054 | 20.32 |
66 | 0.017097 | 79412 | 17.03 | 0.01095 | 87177 | 19.52 |
67 | 0.018463 | 78054 | 16.32 | 0.01201 | 86223 | 18.73 |
68 | 0.019959 | 76613 | 15.61 | 0.013124 | 85187 | 17.95 |
69 | 0.021616 | 75084 | 14.92 | 0.01433 | 84069 | 17.18 |
70 | 0.023528 | 73461 | 14.24 | 0.015728 | 82864 | 16.43 |
71 | 0.025693 | 71732 | 13.57 | 0.017338 | 81561 | 15.68 |
72 | 0.028041 | 69889 | 12.92 | 0.019108 | 80147 | 14.95 |
73 | 0.030567 | 67930 | 12.27 | 0.021041 | 78616 | 14.23 |
74 | 0.033347 | 65853 | 11.65 | 0.023191 | 76961 | 13.53 |
75 | 0.036572 | 63657 | 11.03 | 0.025713 | 75177 | 12.83 |
76 | 0.040276 | 61329 | 10.43 | 0.028609 | 73244 | 12.16 |
77 | 0.044348 | 58859 | 9.85 | 0.03176 | 71148 | 11.50 |
78 | 0.048797 | 56249 | 9.28 | 0.035157 | 68888 | 10.86 |
79 | 0.053739 | 53504 | 8.73 | 0.03892 | 66467 | 10.24 |
80 | 0.059403 | 50629 | 8.2 | 0.043289 | 63880 | 9.64 |
81 | 0.065873 | 47621 | 7.68 | 0.048356 | 61114 | 9.05 |
82 | 0.073082 | 44484 | 7.19 | 0.054041 | 58159 | 8.48 |
83 | 0.08107 | 41233 | 6.72 | 0.060384 | 55016 | 7.94 |
84 | 0.089947 | 37890 | 6.27 | 0.067498 | 51694 | 7.42 |
85 | 0.099842 | 34482 | 5.84 | 0.075516 | 48205 | 6.92 |
86 | 0.110863 | 31040 | 5.43 | 0.084556 | 44565 | 6.44 |
87 | 0.123088 | 27598 | 5.04 | 0.094703 | 40796 | 5.99 |
88 | 0.136563 | 24201 | 4.68 | 0.106014 | 36933 | 5.57 |
89 | 0.151299 | 20896 | 4.34 | 0.118513 | 33017 | 5.17 |
90 | 0.167291 | 17735 | 4.03 | 0.132206 | 29104 | 4.80 |
91 | 0.18452 | 14768 | 3.74 | 0.147092 | 25257 | 4.45 |
92 | 0.202954 | 12043 | 3.47 | 0.163154 | 21542 | 4.13 |
93 | 0.222555 | 9599 | 3.23 | 0.180371 | 18027 | 3.84 |
94 | 0.243272 | 7463 | 3.01 | 0.198714 | 14775 | 3.57 |
95 | 0.263821 | 5647 | 2.82 | 0.217264 | 11839 | 3.34 |
96 | 0.283833 | 4157 | 2.64 | 0.235735 | 9267 | 3.12 |
97 | 0.302916 | 2977 | 2.49 | 0.25381 | 7083 | 2.93 |
98 | 0.320672 | 2075 | 2.36 | 0.271155 | 5285 | 2.76 |
99 | 0.336706 | 1410 | 2.24 | 0.287424 | 3852 | 2.60 |
100 | 0.353541 | 935 | 2.12 | 0.30467 | 2745 | 2.45 |
101 | 0.371218 | 605 | 2.01 | 0.32295 | 1909 | 2.30 |
102 | 0.389779 | 380 | 1.9 | 0.342327 | 1292 | 2.17 |
103 | 0.409268 | 232 | 1.8 | 0.362867 | 850 | 2.03 |
104 | 0.429732 | 137 | 1.7 | 0.384639 | 541 | 1.91 |
105 | 0.451218 | 78 | 1.6 | 0.407717 | 333 | 1.78 |
106 | 0.473779 | 43 | 1.51 | 0.43218 | 197 | 1.67 |
107 | 0.497468 | 23 | 1.42 | 0.458111 | 112 | 1.56 |
108 | 0.522341 | 11 | 1.34 | 0.485597 | 61 | 1.45 |
109 | 0.548458 | 5 | 1.26 | 0.514733 | 31 | 1.35 |
110 | 0.575881 | 2 | 1.18 | 0.545617 | 15 | 1.26 |
111 | 0.604675 | 1 | 1.11 | 0.578354 | 7 | 1.17 |
112 | 0.634909 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.613055 | 3 | 1.08 |
113 | 0.666655 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.649839 | 1 | 1.00 |
114 | 0.699987 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.688829 | 0 | 0.92 |
115 | 0.734987 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.730159 | 0 | 0.85 |
116 | 0.771736 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.771736 | 0 | 0.78 |
117 | 0.810323 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.810323 | 0 | 0.72 |
118 | 0.850839 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.850839 | 0 | 0.67 |
119 | 0.893381 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.893381 | 0 | 0.61 |